Two weeks on from the knockout round playoffs, the UEFA Champions League moves on to the round of 16, where the top eight clubs from the league phase join the winners of the play-in round. Six of the eight ties sees teams face each other with history already written between the sides in question. In three of those ties, we have a repeat of league phase clashes, providing the backdrop for a fascinating round of football.
Here is The Deck’s preview of the UCL last 16, where we will also provide our predictions for each of the eight ties.
UEFA Champions League: Round of 16
Liverpool, Newcastle Look for Revenge
After pulling off a surprising result during the league phase against their opponents, Galatasaray will be looking to replicate their success versus Liverpool.
The Turkish side is back in the UCL knockout stages for the first time in 12 years. On that occasion, they were beaten by English opposition (Chelsea). Of their six victories over Premier League sides, two of them have come versus Liverpool (2-2-1). In fact, of the eight teams from England they have faced, Liverpool is one of three they have a winning record against. Sarı-Kırmızılılar‘s home record this term has been solid, winning three of five, though their away form is the contrast with just one success.
In the last two seasons, only one club has more wins during the league phase than Liverpool’s 13 (Arsenal with 14). However, the Reds will want to translate that to knockout round joy, having lost to eventual winners Paris Saint-Germain at this stage in 2024/25. They did suffer elimination in the Europa League to a Turkish side 11 years go, falling on penalties to Beşiktaş. With that in mind, they will certainly need to take the tie seriously. They have not reached the quarterfinals of the UCL since making the final in 2021/22.
Prediction: Liverpool
One of the two first-time meetings in this round will see Atalanta battle Bayern Munich in what will be a vital tie from a UEFA coefficient perspective.
The Bergamaschi will have quite the confidence heading into this tie for many reasons more than one. Their recent record versus Bundesliga clubs have been impressive. For instance, they won two of three such matches this term, including last round against Borussia Dortmund. They also topped Bayer Leverkusen in the Europa League final back in 2023/24. So, Bayern will have their hands full in a tricky matchup. Five years on from their last UCL round of 16 appearance, La Dea know they will be in for quite the challenge.
Bayern impressed during the league phase, winning seven of eight matches to finish second behind Arsenal. The Bavarians scored a whopping 22 times, second only to the Gunners’ 23. It is the third season in a row in which they will have to face an Italian club in the knockout stage of the UCL. Last campaign saw their run end at the quarterfinals against Inter, though they saw off Lazio this round two years ago. The six-time champions have successfully negotiated this stage in each of the last six years.
Prediction: Bayern Munich
Atlético Madrid and Tottenham square off in what is a repeat of the 1962/63 UEFA Cup Winners Cup showpiece, won by the latter.
It has been a torrid run against English clubs in the Champions League for Atleti, who has won just once in their last 10 attempts (1-2-7). Their sole success did come in this round away to Manchester United four years ago at this stage, when they made it to the last eight before falling to the competition’s eventual champions Manchester City. Exactly half of the goals Los Rojiblancos conceded during the league phase came in their defeats to Arsenal and Liverpool, which will leave them nervy for this tie.
Tottenham returns to the last 16 of the UCL three years on from their last showing, which saw them get knocked out by AC Milan. One would have to go back to 2018/19 to see the last time Spurs progressed from this round, when they reached the final. Spurs had a perfect home record during the league phase, being the only club not to concede in their four matches. That could be key if they wish to prevail in this tie. It will be the second time meeting a Spanish team this term, having beaten Villarreal on matchday 1.
Prediction: Atlético Madrid
Another game we saw during the league phase sees Newcastle look for a reversal of fortune against Barcelona.
The Magpies will be involved in their maiden knockout round tie in the Champions League 23 years after reaching the second group stage. They also happened to face Barca at that stage, losing home and away. Of course, they were also beaten at the beginning the fall’s league phase by the same opponent. Overall, the head-to-head is not a promising sight for Newcastle fans, who have just one win to four defeats. Their last round of 16 tie in Europe did go their way though when they eliminated Anzi Makhachkala in the 2012/13 UEL.
Barcelona managed to avoid the knockout round playoffs on the final day of the league phase, and will hope to move past this stage for the third year running. The Catalans’ last two-legged tie against English opposition ended in defeat against Liverpool seven years ago in the semifinals. However, they did knock out Manchester United that same season a round earlier. In the UCL era, this will be their 14th time meeting a Premier League club in a two-legged clash, having come out on top in 10 of the previous 13.
Prediction: Barcelona
City and Real Meet Again as PSG Has More English Opposition
It will be an arduous task for Bayer Leverkusen as they face the league phase winners Arsenal in their round of 16 tie.
Die Werkself have seemingly snuck into this round in quiet fashion, with five clean sheets in their last seven paving the way for them to advance. With that said, they will be hoping to avoid last season’s result, when Bayern ousted them. Since making the 2001/02 final – where they lost to Real Madrid – Bayer has yet to advance beyond this stage in the UCL. However, they did prevail in their last two-legged tie over an English team, beating West Ham in the UEL two springs ago.
Arsenal, on the other hand, became the first team to win all eight league phase games in the UCL, and impressed in doing so. The Gunners finished with the most goals scored and fewest conceded as they stormed through to this round. This included a victory over Bayern on matchday 5. They had no problems in the round of 16 a year ago as they scored nine times while eliminating PSV. That will be something the North Londoners will look to continue in this tie. Remarkably, the year Leverkusen reached the final, they lost to Arsenal during the second group stage.
Prediction: Arsenal
The other first-time meeting in this round will be between this season’s darlings Bodø/Glimt and Sporting CP in what is a wonderful opportunity for both to advance.
Bodø has proven to be the surprise package of the Champions League this campaign, and will not be taken lightly given their incredible run. The Norwegian side has won their last four in the competition, going unbeaten in five, which is a stunning feat given they were unable to win any of their first six league phase matches. Moreover, there will be added confidence in that they won both of their previous games versus Portuguese sides, having done so in the Europa League last term.
In the UCL era, Sporting has never gone farther than this round. The Portuguese champions reached the knockout playoffs a year ago, but fell to Borussia Dortmund. When considering all UEFA club competitions, they have not gotten to the quarterfinals since the 2022/23 UEL, where Juventus ended their run. In six games against Norwegian opposition, Leões have a strong record, winning five times and losing just once. Their last such games came in 2019/20, defeating Rosenborg home and away in the Europa League.
Prediction: Bodø/Glimt
Our pick for this season’s tie of the round for the last 16 is between Paris Saint-Germain and Chelsea in what will be a cracking tie.
It will be the ninth and 10th time the pair will meet, with PSG currently leading the head-to-head 3-3-2. En route to their maiden UCL glory last term, Les Parisiens knocked off an English team in this round, as an unseeded side no less. They managed to top Liverpool on penalties after both legs ended 1-0 for the away team. It is the 14th year in a row where PSG is involved at this round of the competition, and has successfully negotiated this stage in each of the last two campaigns.
Chelsea last run in the UCL knockout stage came three years ago when Real Madrid ended their journey at the quarterfinal stage with 2-0 wins across both legs. While the Blues do have a losing record to PSG in UEFA club competition play, they did win the expanded FIFA Club World Cup last summer at their opponent’s expense, beating them 3-0 in the final. Overall, last season’s UEFA Conference League winners have a strong record against French sides, with their three previous defeated to PSG accounting for half of their losses all-time.
Prediction: Paris Saint-Germain
We conclude with a tie we have become quite familiar to seeing at some point of the Champions League year in, year out, as Real Madrid meets Manchester City.
This will be the 16th and 17th time the pair face off in European competition, the second most matches played between two sides behind Real and Bayern’s 28. In this head-to-head, however, both sides have won five times each, along with five draws. Real has the upper hand in the knockout stages, progressing from four of the previous six. With that said, the record UCL winners lost at home to the Cityzens during the league phase. Real has gotten past this round in each of the last five years.
City prevailed in both league phase matches against Spanish opposition, on the road no less. In 36 total matches against LaLiga sides in European action, they have a record of 15-9-12, which is quite solid. The Cityzens scored in seven of their eight league phase games, the sole exception coming in a 2-0 reverse to Leverkusen. Their elimination to Real last term in the knockout playoffs was the first time since 2016/17 in which they did not make at least the quarterfinals of the competition.
Prediction: Manchester City
