UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Knockout Stage Week 2

There were some huge changes in the UEFA coefficient rankings after last week’s knockout round playoff deciders. Some battles are over, while others are going down to the wire. As expected, the first round of knockout football for 2026 provided the thrills for fans as there was constant drama. That has been felt in the coefficient rankings as well.

Here is The Deck’s latest UEFA coefficient analysis following the knockout round playoffs.

Before starting, it is important to note that the access list for the 2027/28 season is not yet confirmed, as it is the first of a new three-year cycle. As such, the battles mentioned in this article are based off the current access list used until more information is known about a potential new access list.

UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Seasonal Ranking

The race for the second European Performance Spot is heating up after Germany and Italy lost more teams. The former saw Borussia Dortmund exit the Champions League, while the latter had two teams eliminated: Internazionale and Juventus. With Spain completing a perfect week, they have managed to go within 0.200 points of second spot. They also have the second most teams left in Europe, with six. That gives them a great shot at obtaining an EPS for the second year running.

An all-Italian affair will occur in the next round of the Europa League, already putting the Serie A in all manner of trouble. While they are not out yet, there is no room for error from Atalanta and Fiorentina in the UCL and UECL, respectively. If they both get knocked out next round, it will truly spell the end of Italy’s hopes of an EPS.

Germany remains in second for now, though they still have work to do. Although they suffered a nightmare week with no wins, they have a narrow advantage heading into the last 16. It is now a matter of whether they can hold off the challenge for Spain, Italy, and Portugal. The Bundesliga sides had mixed draws, but should be able to have at least three in the quarterfinals. Anything less, and trouble looms.

As for Portugal, losing Benfica was far from ideal. However, they are still within striking distance thanks to the fact they have three sides left. Porto and Sporting Braga are on opposite sides of the UEL bracket, and if they were to reach the final – producing a rematch of the 2010/11 final – it really could put Portugal back in the mix. Add to the fact that Sporting managed a favourable UCL draw, and it would be ill-advised to count them out.

Heading into the round of 16, four nations are left with any real hope of finishing second. Of course, England is well on their way to earning top spot for the second year running. It is just a matter of who will join them in picking up an extra UCL spot.

UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Five-Year Ranking

Battle for Ninth/Tenth: Greece Keep Czechia on Their Toes

Looking at the five-year UEFA coefficient battles now, and the race for 10th took a fascinating turn last week. That was due to Panathinaikos knocking out Viktoria Plzeň. It was a result that could very well swing this race in Greece’s favour.

Czechia still holds 10th for now, but their hopes of ninth spot are waning. Türkiye received 0.300 bonus points from Galatasaray for advancing in the UCL. That alone might have just put the Turks over the line for ninth. However, the Czechs still have to watch what is happening below them. After all, Greece is in striking position, even with just two teams left.

Poland earned two more wins last week, but lost Jagiellonia Białystok in the process. Due to their divisor being four instead of five, they have hope going into the round of 16. It will be even more crucial for them to have their remaining two clubs make at least the quarterfinals in the UECL. Anything less, and they will miss out.

Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK Thessaloniki were both eliminated for Greece, which certainly put a dent in their chances at 10th. With that said, Panathinaikos’ progression was pivotal, and could very well be what decides this race. If they can get past the last 16 of the UEL, that will add at least 0.600 more points. At this stage, that is a large amount.

So, while most of the coefficient races are coming to an end, what happens for the last spot in the top 10 could be the most interesting battle left, even more fascinating than the EPS tussle.

Battle for Top 15: Cyprus Holds Off Switzerland

We have another race that is complete, and that is the one for top 15. Switzerland has lost their last club as Lausanne-Sport was unable to defeat Sigma Olomouc. Even though Cyprus lost Omonoia Nicosia, they cannot be caught for 15th.

In the end, the Cypriots deserve 15th place, as they have almost doubled Switzerland’s coefficient this season. They managed three of their four teams in the league phase, versus the Swiss’ three out of five. That was already a promising sign. With just 13 losses versus Switzerland’s 21, it is hard to argue which of the nations was more deserved of the spot.

It will be a campaign of reflection for Switzerland, who will now lose a European place heading into 2027/28. They are set to lose quite a bit of points as well, which will make the challenge all the more difficult to be involved in this race in the coming years. In contrast, Cyprus looks set to charge up the rankings again, and could be a regular in the top 15 in the not-too-distant future.

Battle for 22nd/29th: Hungary on the Cusp, Slovakia Holds On

The battle for 22nd is just about over, as Hungary claimed a massive 0.750 points last week through Ferencváros. That, coupled with Crvena zvezda’s elimination, gives the Hungarians a lead of almost 2.000 points over Ukraine, who was idle.

It is difficult to see the Ukrainians or even Slovenia catching the Hungarians for 22nd now, given the gap. Shakhtar Donetsk and Celje would have to reach at least the semifinals of the UECL to stand a shot, and that also includes Fradi getting knocked out right away. Seeing none of those are guarantees, it is Hungary’s spot to lose.

Serbia was not the only nation that lost their final team last week. That also happened with Bulgaria, with Ludogorets failing to hold onto their first leg advantage. That results in Slovakia winning 29th spot and sending both of their UECL teams into Q2. It will be Q1 for Bulgaria’s lower ranked UECL team starting in 2027/28.

So, with this race just about over, expect Hungary to confirm 22nd place very soon.

Battle for 33rd: Armenia Prevails

The race for 33rd is now complete, as neither Finland, Kosovo, nor Bosnia were able to keep their teams in Europe. Armenia is also out, but with Noah’s first leg victory, it put them over the line.

That win was the only points won by any of the four countries in the knockout round playoffs. That victory also brought Armenia to 4.000 points on the season, something no one else below them in the rankings were able to match. As such, it is hard to argue the Eurasian nation’s merit here. They finished a point ahead of the chasing pack – which excludes Moldova, seeing they did not even have a team reach the league phase. It will be fascinating to see how this race shapes up next term.

A Look at Everyone Else

We conclude by taking a look at the last few nations also involved in last week’s action. Scotland and North Macedonia are both out, though the former will go out on the high of a win. There will certainly be contrasting perspectives from the pair, as despite winning more points this season, Scotland ended up with just 10 wins on the year, one more than North Macedonia. Definitely not a good look for a nation that was fighting for top 15.

Belgium lost another team, as did Portugal, Denmark, Norway, and Croatia. Netherlands is the only one of the lot to still have the same number of sides left as before, thanks to AZ’s recovery. The Danes and Norwegians will duke it out to see who finishes higher, though there is nothing on the line for either. Croatia, meanwhile, passed Israel thanks to Rijeka’s victory. They will finish the season in the top 20.

As for the countries sixth through eighth, Portugal will head into the round of 16 with three teams, while Netherlands and Belgium will have one each. That does a solid job at reflecting how this campaign went for the trio. Next year will reintroduce a battle for sixth, with the Portuguese already holding a lead of 1.100 points over Belgium. Whether they can add to that lead between now and season’s end will be another matter.