Cardiff City sit top of League One at Christmas. A return to the EFL Championship at the first time of asking looks to be increasingly likely.
However, after winning five games in a row in the league, a loss to Lincoln City could have highlighted a weakness in Brian Barry-Murphy’s side. With the January transfer window nearly upon us, there remains time for the club’s board to solve it.
In the latest episode of League One Lowdown, hosts Jamie Johnson and Seb Jones took a closer look at how the Imps were able to take advantage to claim victory at Sincil Bank.
They picked out that Cardiff seem to have a soft underbelly that appears to be becoming more apparent as the season continues.
Lincoln City Game Highlighted Weakness
Lincoln City have been highly efficient this season, sitting at the bottom of the average possession table with 41.3%. Yet they sit second in the league table, with a positive goal difference and the joint fourth most goals scored.
Michael Skubala has adopted a high-intensity physical game that looks to transition the ball quickly from front to back. This tactic has become more commonplace throughout the EFL and even the Premier League.
Cardiff have struggled to adapt to this change in style. They are set up to dominate teams, with the highest average possession in League One at 61.4%. This has resulted in 37 goals so far.
In isolation, a poor result against a decent promotion-chasing side could just be chalked up to a bad day at the office. However, if you compare it to some of their other results, a pattern starts to emerge.
To date, Cardiff have lost to Lincoln City, Bradford City, Bolton Wanderers, Burton Albion and Blackpool. Whilst also struggling to draw against Stockport County and Port Vale.
With the exception of Bolton Wanderers (59.1%) and Stockport County (50.7%), the majority of those sides have less than 50% average possession stats this season.
The Trotters are a decent side, who, unlike their usual pattern of play, allowed Cardiff to have 63% possession. Perhaps indicating that manager Stephen Schumacher adapted to allow his opponent to have more of the ball. Stockport, on the other hand, took an early lead through a penalty, with Cardiff only able to score in the 90th minute.
Bradford City and Lincoln City, especially, are happy to sit back and battle their way to victory, allowing the opposition to have the ball whilst taking their chances at the other end. Port Vale, Blackpool and Burton have all had to proceed with similar tactics at times to lesser success.
If you suffocate the Cardiff City attack, they struggle to find a way to break through. Especially if they concede first.
Cardiff City Weakness
Cardiff City have some of the best attackers in the division, which is evidenced by their goals for, as well as Salech sitting joint second in the race for the Golden Boot. However, they lack the creativity or experience to break down a team when they sit back.
All five defeats so far this season, and their defeat against Stockport County, Cardiff have conceded first.
Naturally, when a team scores against a title favourite, they start to sit back and protect their lead.
Cardiff will also naturally push forward in an attempt to turn around the score. Whilst this has resulted in some success, Peterborough United, Reading and the crazy game with Doncaster Rovers, sides with a strong and cohesive defensive unit are usually able to keep the Bluebirds out.
This clear tactic of attempting to score an early goal, then shutting up shop, is highly effective against Brian Barry-Murphy’s side, and it is highly likely that more managers and coaching staff will be looking at it as a viable option rather than trying to go toe to toe.
If it does catch on, it may mean a frustrating second half to the season, which could even mean they drop out of the top two.
However, with the January transfer window only days away, if the club can locate a player with the ability to unlock tight defences, it could prove to be a promising second half of the campaign.
Alternatively, Barry-Murphy may look to adjust his tactics against some sides and attempt to lure out teams from their rigid shapes.
Cardiff City Home Defence
Cardiff City currently boast the best defence away from home this season, only conceding eight goals from 10 games so far. However, in contrast, they also have the fifth-worst home defence. This perhaps once again demonstrates the club’s weakness.
At home, the club are expected to dominate games in front of their own fans, which has resulted in the best attacking output at 26 goals. But with such, sides are able to exploit their weakness.
At home, they have only been able to keep three clean sheets (Mansfield, Plymouth and Rotherham) in 10 games compared to five in 10 away from home. They have also conceded three goals or more on three occasions (Doncaster, Bradford and Leyton Orient).
The League One leaders will be hoping they can tighten up their defence at home, or hope they can continue outscoring their opposition. Currently, their xG against at home sits at 1.40 per game and 1.50 away from home.
But whilst they are able to outperform their xG against away by only recording 0.8 goals per game, they match their xG against at home with 1.4 goals actually conceded per game at home. This is perhaps their ability to keep the average goals per game down from four at home to only 1.9 away from home.
Conclusion
Whilst Cardiff City still do have more than enough in the second half of the season. This perhaps demonstrates a trend that could become more common in the second half of the season as sides adapt their style of play and fatigue sets in.
If Cardiff pick up an injury to Salech or face more sides willing to sit back and frustrate them, then it could be a challenge.
Fortunately, the transfer window could provide the answer.
Fortunately, the transfer window could provide the answer.
With no other side able to push ahead as Birmingham City did last season, it is all still to play for.
