One more UEFA coefficient battle is over after the second legs of the quarterfinals, but there are still two left heading to the semifinals. The chaos continued last week, and leaves us well poised going into the final stages.
Here is The Deck’s latest UEFA coefficient following the quarterfinal return legs.
Before starting, it is important to note that the access list for the 2027/28 season is not yet confirmed, as it is the first of a new three-year cycle. As such, the battles mentioned in this article are based off the current access list used until more information is known about a potential new access list.
European Performance Spot: Germany Closes In On Spain
The battle for the second EPS is now a two-horse race, a very tight one at that. Spain and Germany are now neck-and-neck after the latter had another strong week. It is really heating up now, and it truly feels like anything would happen.
| National Association | Season Coefficient (Record) | Weekly Coefficient (Record) | Teams Left | 24/25 Coefficient | Bonus Points |
| 1. England (=) | 26.569 (64-15-25) | 0.555 (2-1-2) | 4 (9) | 29.464 | 0.444 |
| 2. Spain (=) | 21.406 (45-13-30) | 0.250 (1-0-5) | 2 (8) | 23.892 | 0.250 |
| 3. Germany (=) | 21.214 (41-12-25) | 0.571 (2-0-1) | 2 (7) | 18.421 | 0.357 |
| 4. Portugal (=) | 20.100 (33-12-17) | 0.600 (1-1-1) | 1 (5) | 16.250 | 0.200 |
| 5. Italy (=) | 19.000 (37-13-28) | 0.285 (1-0-1) | 0 (7) | 21.875 | N/A |
| 6. France (=) | 17.535 (35-12-29) | 0.571 (2-0-0) | 2 (7) | 17.928 | 0.285 |
While the Germans did lose Mainz, their other two sides knocked off Spanish opposition, which cut the lead down considerably. Then, Real Betis got knocked out, and Rayo Vallecano lost their game (though they still advanced). In fact, outside of the guaranteed points from the all-Spanish Champions League quarterfinal, Spain claimed a meagre 0.062 points, which were the UECL bonus points. Germany, on the other hand, picked up nearly double the points last week in total.
Considering the total points left for both countries, Spain can still earn a maximum of 1.750 points. In comparison, Germany could earn up to 2.071 points. Of course, the primary reason for this is due to more bonus points being available in the UEL than the UECL. Still, a Bayern Munich vs Atlético Madrid UCL final could decide the second EPS. So much will be on the line in the last round with two-legged play. Could we even see this go down to the final?
Portugal’s hopes of top 2 ended with Sporting CP and Porto’s eliminations. Still, it was an excellent year from them, where they surpassed 20.000 points. Braga could even add 1.400 more points if they collect the maximum left in the UEL. As for Italy, they are without teams in the semifinal stage, completing a poor season for their standards. France has two sides left, and could even pass the Italians to finish fifth on the season. As for England, they have secured top spot in the EPS ranking, having confirmed their extra UCL spot after the first legs.
Battle for 10th: Czechs Hold On At Greece’s Expense
The battle for 10th is finally over, and Czechia just holds on.
They will be very relieved, because for a while it looked like AEK Athens would complete the comeback and give Greece two more chances to snatch the final top 10 place. Fortunately for the Czechs, that was now how it went.
| National Association | 5-Year Coefficient | Season Coefficient (Record) | Weekly Coefficient (Record) | Teams Left |
| 8. Netherlands | 67.929 | 9.979 (25-7-33) | 0.166 (0-1-0) | 0 (6) |
| 9. Türkiye | 51.875 | 11.075 (21-9-20) | N/A | 0 (5) |
| 10. Czechia | 48.525 | 11.025 (17-16-21) | N/A | 0 (5) |
| 11. Greece | 48.412 | 14.200 (22-21-17) | 0.400 (1-0-0) | 0 (5) |
The difference between 10th and 11th came down to just a draw, which is remarkable. The Greeks will live to regret missing out on a guaranteed UCL league phase spot, as they had their chance. After Panathinaikos knocked off Viktoria Plzeň in the Europa League knockout round playoffs, they had the advantage. In the end, they fail to capitalize, and will now miss out on 10th.
Czechia did just enough here, though with their 21 losses, they can count themselves lucky. It became a lot closer than it really should have been, seeing they had a healthy lead going into the start of the campaign. It will certainly serve as a warning going into next term, where they will be involved in another tense battle for a top 10 place with Poland and Greece.
Netherlands saw their season come to an end, and they finish without reaching the 10.000-point mark. That has to be a massive disappointment, particularly since they had all six sides reach the league phase. The impact could be far-reaching, as if they have a similar performance next term, they might not be able to hold onto ninth, which would be a huge failure on their end.
Battle for 22nd: Ukraine Stays In the Race
Ukraine has kept the race for 22nd going thanks to Shakhtar Donetsk, who drew in Alkmaar to advance. That won 0.625 more points, and saw them pass Serbia in to 23rd.
| National Association | 5-Year Coefficient | Season Coefficient (Record) | Weekly Coefficient (Record) | Teams Left | Bonus Points |
| 22. Hungary | 27.182 | 7.437 (15-6-11) | N/A | 0 (4) | N/A |
| 23. Ukraine | 25.912 | 8.312 (17-6-14) | 0.250 (0-1-0) | 1 (4) | 0.125 |
| 24. Serbia | 25.750 | 4.750 (12-5-9) | N/A | 0 (4) | N/A |
There is still work for the Pitmen to do though, if they are to lift their nation into 22nd by the end of the season. The gap is now 1.270 points, meaning that two wins and a draw are required for the Ukrainians to outdo Hungary and take that last spot in the top 22 away from them. It will be a tall order for Shakhtar, who will have to go through two teams from the ‘Big 5’ leagues, but there is still hope for them. After all, they are the only team left in the UECL to have won a European trophy before. If they can do so again, it could prove to be beneficial for both them and their country.
