UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Knockout Stage Week 5

With just three battles left in the UEFA coefficient rankings, the pressure could not be much higher.

The quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League, and UEFA Conference League occurred in midweek. Ten of the 12 matches had a winning team, which proved critical for the rankings. Next week will decide quite a bit for the final rankings.

Here is The Deck’s latest UEFA coefficient analysis after the first legs of the quarterfinals.

Before starting, it is important to note that the access list for the 2027/28 season is not yet confirmed, as it is the first of a new three-year cycle. As such, the battles mentioned in this article are based off the current access list used until more information is known about a potential new access list.

UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Seasonal Ranking

While England officially clinched a European Performance Spot on Tuesday, the other EPS place is up for grabs. Spain, Germany, and Portugal are the trio competing for the spot, and they all had contrasting results. We already knew that England would claim one of the EPSs, as they are well on their way to top spot for the second year running. Now the goal will be to have a European winner once more.

The Bundesliga trio all managed to win, with two of those victories coming at the expense of Spanish opposition. That has seen the gap get cut down to just 0.621 points. If Bayern Munich, Freiburg, and Mainz prevail in their respective ties next week, that would equate to 0.428 bonus points, which is huge at this point in the season. In comparison, the maximum Spain can get if five teams advance is 0.687, while Portugal can still claim 0.700 points.

Spain had a relatively poor week. Excluding the all-LaLiga clash – won by Atlético Madrid – the other four sides went 1-1-2. Neither of their UEL teams managed to come out on top, which could prove costly. Celta Vigo’s beating in Germany, in particular, does not look promising. It will be a tough ask to overcome a 3-0 deficit, even at home. If they are unable to do so, it could be a turning point in this race. The same thing goes for Real Madrid, who has to go to Germany down 2-1 on aggregate. It is a more manageable task, but not one a club will want to be in at this rate.

As for Portugal, they are holding on by a thread. At this point in the season, countries can seldom afford to go a week without collecting at least one win. Two draws and a defeat is not horrendous, but it certainly does not help. The real challenge now, however, is the fact that all three teams will be playing on the road in their return legs. That makes things an incredibly tough ask. If all three of them win and advance, that would contribute 1.900 points, and would surely put them firmly back in this race. Again, that is a very tall order, given the quality of opposition, and the fact they are all on the road.

Italy is set to lose both of their remaining teams as Bologna and Fiorentina lost to English sides, the pair conceding thrice each. Turning that around does not look likely. As for France, PSG won again, while Strasbourg suffered their first continental reverse of the season.

As we head to the second legs, the two Germany vs Spain games, and the Portugal vs Spain matches are very much worth watching. Those, along with the other ties involving German and Portuguese sides are absolutely critical. It is not just about closing the gap to second spot now: it is about having as many teams left after Thursday as possible.

UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Five-Year Ranking

Battle for 10th: Czechia On the Cusp

Although they have no more teams left in Europe, Czechia is nervously watching what AEK Athens does in the UECL. After Thursday’s result, they are looking likely to hold onto 10th place.

The side from the Greek capital fell 3-0 at Rayo Vallecano, likely putting an end to their chances of progressing. Remember: they need to collect at least 0.600 more points in order for Greece to pass Czechia and claim the final top 10 spot. Even if they come from behind to advance, that would see 0.500 points come in, meaning another result would be required in the semifinals.

For reference, Greece has not finished in the top 10 since 2011/12, almost a decade and a half ago. While they have regularly been around the top 15, this is the closest they have gotten to making a return to the top 10. They will start next season in 12th spot as things stand, and will have to make up just 2.113 UEFA coefficient points to catch Poland for 10th.

For now, however, the goal is to catch Czechia. Unless AEK can produce a miracle at home on Thursday, that will not happen this term.

Netherlands collected no points, though their five-year ranking for this term is no longer relevant. They will finish seventh, regardless of how far AZ goes.

Battle for 22nd: Ukraine Staying Alive

The last battle left, the one for 22nd, looks likely to continue beyond next Thursday. That is thanks to Shakhtar Donetsk’s win over AZ Alkmaar, where the Pitmen scored thrice late on in a 3-0 win.

Bar a collapse next week in Alkmaar, Ukraine will continue their pursuit to get the better of Hungary and finish 22nd. They passed Romania this week, and will jump into 23rd if Shakhtar avoids defeat in the Netherlands. They still need two more wins, plus a draw, to return to the top 22. It was always a challenge going into this term to see whether they could do it. But now, after Shakhtar’s strong run in the UECL, the possibility remains.

Do keep an eye on Thursday’s match at the AFAS Stadion, as Shakhtar will still want to get a result and get their country closer to 22nd spot.