UEFA Coefficient Analysis: League Phase Week 6

We have a new UEFA coefficient analysis on the way after a dramatic opening week to the second half of the league phase.

Matchday 5 of the UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League, as well as matchday 4 of the UEFA Conference League, served up some incredible results as always. Some countries find themselves in a much better position than before, while others are in peril of things really going south.

Here is The Deck’s latest UEFA coefficient analysis after the sixth week of league phase play.

Before starting, it is important to note that the access list for the 2027/28 season is not yet confirmed, as it is the first of a new three-year cycle. As such, the battles mentioned in this article are based off the current access list used until more information is known about a potential new access list.

Also, the coefficient totals do not include any guaranteed bonus points due to league phase ranking/qualifying for the round of 16. This will be added once the league phase of a competition is done.

UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Seasonal Ranking

We kick things off with the seasonal coefficient ranking, which determines the two European Performance Spots (EPS). Although the top two still remain the same, there was a lot of movement from third down. There is a new top 10 entrant, while four other nations moved up in the rankings. On the other hand, three countries saw their place in the top 10 drop due to some substandard performances.

England and Spain had the most disastrous week, recording five and four defeats, respectively. It was a similar story for Germany, who only managed half of the points available to them. The good news for Premier League and Bundesliga fans is that they still occupy the top two places. The former in particular is already in a solid spot, more than a point ahead of third place. However, a recovery next week will be important to avoid making matters complicated in the new year.

Along with Spain, Cyprus and Denmark also moved in the wrong direction. Despite going unbeaten (1-2-0), it was just one win for Cypriot sides. With that said, they still sit 0.607 points behind for Germany for second, they really could have used another victory. Still, Cyprus is in a decent spot, and cannot be count out just yet. Denmark, meanwhile, can be quite pleased with FC København finally getting a win in the Champions League. There is still time for the Danes to hope for having both of their sides make the knockout rounds, but will desperately need FCK to go on a run.

Italy, Portugal, Poland, and France all had solid weeks. They all earned at least 1.400 points, resulting in the quartet moving closer to England and Germany at the top. It was the French who earned the most UEFA coefficient points last week with 1.571 from a 5-1-1 record. If they can repeat that showing in the last full week of league phase play, then they could find themselves nearing the top two.

Before moving on, here are the top 10 countries who would currently receive the most bonus points at the conclusion of the league phase. This only includes league phase position points, plus round of 16 bonus points, and not the 6.000 guaranteed for making the UCL proper. England and Germany would really add onto their lead here. However, Only England and Italy would have their full complement of teams in the knockout stages at the moment.

There is an interesting balance here – while obtaining as many bonus points is key, it is also important to have as many clubs left going into February. So, while Italy would only get 2.535 bonus points in total, they would still have the advantage over the rest of their ‘Big 5’ rivals due to having everyone left in Europe.

Heading into the next week, England and Germany still have the lead for the EPS, but watch out for that chasing pack from third to eighth. They all sit about 1.250 points of a top two place, making the push towards the end of the league phase quite key.

UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Five-Year Ranking

Battle for Sixth/Seventh: Portugal Capitalizes on Poor Dutch

Dutch fans really have reason to get nervous in the battle for sixth in the five-year UEFA coefficient ranking. A horrific league phase showing continued from the Eredivisie clubs, who suffered four defeats. With a total of 21 losses on the season, they have the most of any country. That leaves Portugal lurking, as they are in a very good spot to pounce.

Perhaps the most embarrassing part from a Dutch perspective is the fact that Belgium has earned more points than them at this point, despite having half the number of clubs in a league phase. That cannot be seen as a good thing, and is certainly a sign of concern.

Portugal, meanwhile, is sitting relatively pretty. They will almost surely reach 10.000 points in 2025/26 before the end of the league phase. They are only 2.634 points back from Netherlands, and with how things are going right now, they could very well cut into that lead even farther before the league phase ends. Sixth spot still looks quite feasible for them. It is now a matter of whether they can keep up the strong start.

At this rate, it is Netherlands trying to hold off Portugal for sixth, while Belgium is hoping for a massive slip-up from the latter for seventh.

Battle for Ninth: Czechia Pounces on Troublesome Turks

Czechia had another strong week in the battle for ninth, where their four teams went undefeated. There is still quite a bit of work to do, but it was a promising performance from the Czech teams.

In contrast, Türkiye saw a rather poor week, where none of their three sides managed a win. All three clubs could have been considered favourites in their respective games, yet none of them could win. It is not a super dangerous situation for now, but their lead is now under 3.000.

If Czechia can reduce the gap even further next week, it could really become a shootout come the knockout stage. In the meantime, they will have to continue to chip away at Türkiye’s lead.

Battle for 12th/15th: Poland Pushes Through as Cyprus and Scotland Go Unbeaten

The battle for the top 12/top 15 in the UEFA coefficient ranking saw Cyprus take another key step to returning to the top 15. They and Scotland managed to go the week without a reverse, earning 1.000 and 0.800 points respectively. That is a positive sign for both, especially the latter, who badly needed to get going if they are to have any hopes of 15th place.

Switzerland, Austria, and Sweden failed to register any points last week, putting them in a disastrous spot. The Swedes in particular look all but out at this rate. It is quite difficult to see how they will be able to push through. Just surviving until the knockout stage would be impressive. For the Swiss and Austrians, neither have really managed to do anything meaningful this season. A combined 7.700 points and 31 losses tell the story, and they really do not deserve a top 15 spot. However, they still have reason to hope. After all, at least Switzerland currently has two teams in a knockout round spot.

Norway grabbed another draw through Brann, while Denmark claimed a victory thanks to FCK. Top 15 is all but certain for both Nordic countries, even though they could not be left satisfied after the qualifying rounds. The goal at this rate should be to finish no lower than 14th, as anything worse than that would have to be seen as a failure.

As for Greece and Poland, they strengthened what are already secured top 12 places. It would take a massive collapse for either nation not to achieve 12th spot. They can both still hope for 10th, though that looks rather unlikely. Of course, Poland can even dream of an EPS, especially if all four of their sides make the Conference League knockout stage.

The race for 15th continues to be the theme here, where five nations battle it out for one spot. Cyprus has to be seen as the overwhelming favourite at this rate, given how poor the other four countries have been. Keep a close eye on this race over the next week.

Battle for 22nd/29th: Romania Pips Hungary Once Again

The race for 22nd continues to be a fascinating battle five months into the season. Despite having an advantage over most of their rivals, Croatia and Romania have managed to make this a three-horse race. In fact, Serbia and Ukraine can even dream of reaching 22nd spot, which was unfathomable at the start of the league phase.

Croatia, alongside Slovenia and Azerbaijan, failed to grab a win last time out. Romania, meanwhile, earned a huge victory thanks to CS Universitatea Craiova, which saw them pass Hungary for 22nd due to Ferencváros only managing a draw in the Europa League.

The remarkable thing is looking at the current bonus points. Fradi would earn Hungary a whopping 1.437 points, which is more than Croatia and Romania combined. That would see the Hungarians jump into 21st place. If that occurred, it would have to be seen as the most incredible turn of events in the five-year coefficient rankings this league phase.

As for everyone else, Serbia and Ukraine kept their hopes of 22nd place alive thanks to wins from Crvena zvezda and Shakhtar Donetsk. Both sit in the top 24 of the respective competition, which is pivotal if they are to climb into the top 22. Slovakia and Bulgaria also claimed victories, though they are just trying to stay in the top 29. That is particularly an ask for the latter, who still needs about 3.000 points to ensure they finish above Russia.

We are in for a very intriguing end to the league phases for this battle. Whether Ferencváros can keep Hungary in this race remains to be seen. One thing is for certain: this is far from settled.

Battle for 33rd/38th: Latvia Confirmed 39th as Armenia and Kosovo Pile the Pressure on Moldova

Perhaps the most thrilling race left, the battle for 33rd in the UEFA coefficient ranking is a must-follow. Five countries keep the push to pass Moldova for the last place in the top 33.

Kosovo and Bosnia were the only two to pick up wins last week. The latter passed Latvia to ensure the Baltic nation finishes the season in 39th. Both Balkan nations also claimed some valuable points in chasing Moldova down. Drita is on the cusp of securing a knockout round place, while Zrinjski needs at least two more points to do the same. KuPS and Noah are also in the top 24 in the UECL, keeping Finland and Armenia in a decent spot.

Kazakhstan’s chances of a top 33 finish are getting lower and lower due to Kairat losing once more in the Champions League. Unsurprisingly, they are in a disastrous spot heading into the last three rounds of the league phase. As for Iceland, they picked up another result through Breiðablik, who still has a shot at moving on. Anything lower than 32nd looks unthinkable for them at this point, and if they get another win, that would just about seal it.

So, all eyes are on Armenia, Kosovo, Finland, and Bosnia going into the last two rounds of the UECL. Those four are the ones really fighting it out for the last place in the top 33.

Battle for 50th: Gibraltar Loses Out on Golden Opportunity

If Gibraltar fails to finish 50th in the five-year UEFA coefficient ranking, remember Lincoln Red Imps’ last game. They could not have asked for a better chance to grab the result that would have pushed them past Luxembourg (and Montenegro) for 50th place. Now their chances of top 50 look quite slim.

It was a massive disappointment for Lincoln Red Imps to see a lead slip away. Now they need at least a draw at home to Sigma Olomouc and/or away to Legia Warszawa to bring Gibraltar out of the bottom five. The good news is that they are unbeaten at home in the league phase, making their next game against the Czech side is one for them to have some semblance of hope of getting over the line.

Fans of Luxembourgish football continue to hold their breath – it will be a very stressful next two weeks to see whether they will still have four teams in Europe for the 2027/28 season. It is up to Lincoln Red Imps and Gibraltar to deny them.

A Look at Everyone Else

Of the four countries not involved in a UEFA coefficient battle, only Malta earned a win last week. Ħamrun Spartans made history for their nation by winning a group phase for the very first time – something the teams from Luxembourg are thanking them for.

Israel, Ireland, and North Macedonia did not have any points won in what has been a nightmare of a league phase for the first two. With just eight wins in Europe this term, Israel has once again disappointed. Maccabi Tel Aviv is unlikely to get into the UEL knockout rounds, wrapping up a poor showing.

Ireland will also be left with regret that neither Shamrock Rovers nor Shelbourne could manage to do more in the UECL proper. The latter is the only team across the league phases who have yet to score. That simply is not good enough, and had Ireland’s position not been secured, that could have proved to be costly.

North Macedonia can still be happy with how the season has gone. Shkëndija still has a legitimate shot at knockout round football, which would be commendable. They still need at least one more win, but that is not impossible, given how well they have performed.