A dramatic round of 16 came to a conclusion before the March international break, leaving some interesting battles left in the UEFA coefficient rankings. There is still a second European Performance Spot on the line, as well as 10th place, and confirmation of 22nd spot.

Now that there are less than 10 nations left in Europe this term, here is The Deck’s latest UEFA coefficient analysis following the last 16.

Before starting, it is important to note that the access list for the 2027/28 season is not yet confirmed, as it is the first of a new three-year cycle. As such, the battles mentioned in this article are based off the current access list used until more information is known about a potential new access list.

UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Seasonal Ranking

By now it is well established that England will take one of the European Performance Spots. The question going into this round was, who would grab the other EPS? That has become a bit clearer, as Spain is in a very strong spot to finish second once again.

With an overall record of 7-2-3 in the round of 16, the Spanish teams dominated across the three club competitions. All six sides who entered the round managed to progress, making them stand out from the rest of the pack. Their lead over Germany is now 0.853 heading into the quarterfinals. Seeing there is an all-Spanish UCL tie, that is another 0.687 points guaranteed. If at least three of the other four advance, it is almost surely game over.

The Germans largely disappointed in their ties, losing two more teams. With one side left in each competition, they are one of just three nations left who can claim that. There is little room for error here, as all three Bundesliga teams will need to advance. Fail to do so, and suddenly the task will get all the more arduous.

Remarkably, Portugal is the other country left in the running. While they are 1.381 points back of Spain, there are still three clubs involved across the Champions League and Europa League. Seeing they can still earn 7.000 more points before season’s end, they are not out of it yet. Porto and Sporting Braga could even still meet in the UEL final. If that occurs, they will have a realistic shot at catching their Iberian rivals for second.

Heading into the last eight, keep an eye on the matches involving the Spanish, German, and Portuguese teams. They are the ones left in this intriguing battle to earn an EPS alongside England, who will almost surely clinch their place next week.

UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Five-Year Ranking

Battle for Ninth/Tenth: Greece All Alone

The race for ninth is now over, as Türkiye officially clinched it over their nearest challengers. That was well known for a while. Similarly, Czechia and Poland are out, the latter ending up in 12th place after a phenomenal season. The only question left is, who will grab 10th place?

Greece earned no match points last time out as both Panathinaikos and AEK Athens lost on the night. Fortunately, AEK went through on aggregate, earning 0.100 bonus points.

However, the loss at home to Celje could prove costly for Greece, as now AEK needs to collect at least 0.600 more points for them to jump over Czechia and end the term in 10th. For this to happen, AEK needs at least a win and a draw, or three draws, to give the Greeks 10th place. Both legs against Rayo Vallecano will be pivotal here.

It could not get any simpler here for Greece and Czechia. An AEK Athens elimination in the UECL quarterfinals ends this race. Should AEK advance with either two wins or a win plus a draw, Greece takes it. Should they reach the semifinals through a win and a loss or two draws, the next round will decide it. What an important two weeks for this battle.

Battle for 22nd: Ukraine with Tough Task

The other battle left in the rankings is for 22nd, where Hungary can taste victory. After an excellent year from Ferencváros, who saw their UEL run end in the last 16, the Hungarians hold a 1.650-point lead over Ukraine, who still has Shakhtar Donetsk left.

Simply put, Shakhtar has to reach the final, going 3-1-0 or 4-0-0 across the quarters and semis. If the Pitmen do not reach the final this term, Hungary will claim 22nd. Similarly, if they do not earn at least 1.750 more match points, Ukraine will miss out. It is certainly a tall order for Shakhtar, but given their European pedigree, it would be ill-advised to put it past them.

A Look at Everyone Else

Practically everyone else not previously covered were knocked out of Europe last time out. Belgium, Denmark, and Norway all saw their respective teams take first leg leads, but ultimately faltered when trying to hold on.

Remarkably, none of the countries listed above lost both legs of their ties. AEK Larnaca and Rijeka earned draws for Cyprus and Croatia, respectively. Both nations will be quite happy with how the season went, having succeeded in their ambitions.

Denmark and Norway will also be pleased with their 13th and 14th place finishes. Belgium, meanwhile, will look back at this season and reminisce on what could have been. The same goes for Netherlands, who was easily one of the biggest disappointments of any of the European nations this campaign. They will surely want to improve on this considerably next term.