We had some incredible turns in the UEFA coefficient rankings thanks to some late-game chaos at the end of January. The final matchday of both the UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League seldom disappointed, and now several conclusions can be made. One thing is for certain: this was a week where wins (and losses) counted for a lot more than usual.

Here is The Deck’s UEFA coefficient analysis following the final week of league phase play for the 2025/26 season.

Before starting, it is important to note that the access list for the 2027/28 season is not yet confirmed, as it is the first of a new three-year cycle. As such, the battles mentioned in this article are based off the current access list used until more information is known about a potential new access list.

UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Seasonal Ranking

We start with the seasonal ranking, where there was a drastic change of events at the top. Poland was always going to lose second place due to them having no teams in action, but the country that replaced them will surprise many.

It is not another ‘Big 5’ country joining England in the top two at the moment. Instead, it is Portugal, who benefited from a massive 5.000 points won. The performance from the nation’s top four teams was nothing short of spectacular. Of course, we have that reference moment from Benfica, who had a goalkeeper goal in the 98th minute to progress. That added an extra 0.050 bonus points, and at least two more European matches. Do not underestimate the importance of that. Seeing that the other three teams also locked down round of 16 places, and Portugal could not have asked for a better night.

Only England managed more points last week, collecting a colossal 6.805 points between match points and bonus points. That is simply otherworldly stuff from the number one ranked nation. Top two is already locked down for them, and it really becomes a question of just how many points they could manage. For reference, if the draws play out their way, it is not outside of the realms of possibility that all nine Premier League clubs could be playing in the quarterfinals this season. If that happens, expect a coefficient nearing 30.000.

Among the other competitors in this fascinating battle, Spain and Italy were both rather poor from a performance standpoint. Just two wins each, with the pair losing another team each. This hurts that Spaniards a bit more, seeing they are already down to six teams out of eight. Italy could be in serious trouble though, as they have just one team guaranteed a place in the last 16, that being AS Roma.

Germany earned the third most bonus points, which could come in handy down the road. It was an average week from them too, but they are the closest to Portugal for second place. The gap is just 0.316 points, which could be surpassed during the knockout playoffs. France and Poland are quite a ways back, but can still hope for a top two finish. The former is already made to regret that week in large part due to Marseille’s stunning elimination. Add to the fact that Paris Saint-Germain faces AS Monaco next, and that adds insult to injury.

Keep an eye on Portugal, as they have a serious shot at earning an extra Champions League berth. They will have to contend with the rest of the ‘Big 5’ nations though, which could pose a serious challenge for them. The next two rounds in particular will play a key role in determining how this all plays out.

UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Five-Year Ranking

Battle for Sixth/Seventh: Phenomenal Portugal Takes Sixth

The potential for danger was always brewing for Netherlands, but now it is now all but official: they have lost sixth place to Portugal.

The final week of the league phase very much summed up the season for both nations, with Portugal claiming the 5.000 points to Netherlands’ meagre 0.166. That contrast has seen pair exchange positions in the standings. Portugal’s award will be an extra UCL spot – a sixth European berth. The Dutch will revert back to five spots total.

This completes this battle, as the Dutch downfall is something worth studying. Despite all six teams qualifying for the league phase, just AZ managed to snap up knockout round football. A mindblowing 30 defeats over the last five months, an average of five per team, is beyond unthinkable at this level.

In stark contrast, Portugal was simply amazing. Three teams ended up in the top eight of their league phase, contributing to an 18-5-9 record. Had Benfica not started off the league phase so poorly, they could have already officially taken sixth spot. Still, there is much to be proud of for the Iberian country, who last finished in sixth spot in 2021/22.

Belgium will once again take eighth place, despite a very strong week. A total of 2.300 points were won. Considering the circumstances – they lost two teams in qualifying – this was a very good showing in the league phase. While they did lose Union Saint-Gilloise, there are still two sides left, one who nearly claimed a top eight spot in the Europa League. For retrospect, they had 11 wins in the league phase, as many as the Dutch. There is a high chance now that Belgium will have more points this season than their neighbours, something no one would have seen coming.

So, this race is over. It will now be a matter of collecting points ahead of next season. Portugal already has a 2.100-point lead over Belgium to start next campaign, The question is, can they build on that to end this term?

Battle for Ninth/Tenth: Czechia Feeling the Heat

We are in for quite the battle for 10th spot in the UEFA coefficient ranking. This was a week where Greece closed the gap even further, making things very interesting heading into the knockout playoffs.

Olympiakos’ progression in the UCL won over 0.600 points for the Greeks between the match win and the bonus points. This could prove to be the defining moment in this battle. The difference between 10th and 11th is now less than a point, with a huge UEL knockout playoff tie between Panathinaikos and Viktoria Plzeň set to be the tie of the season.

Czechia lost Slavia Praha as expect, but thanks to Plzeň’s win, they earned more bonus points. Top 10 is still theirs for now, but they are really beginning to wobble. The direct duel will prove to be pivotal, as anything less than victory could seal their fate.

Türkiye picked up 1.075 points in the last week of the league phase, which is not great. The likelihood of them dropping out of the top 10 is rather low, but ninth is no longer a guarantee. Czechia and Greece both have a reason to believe they can catch them, which should cause worry. Even Poland, who was idle, could make a legitimate run if they can go into the round of 16 with all of their remaining teams.

This battle is perhaps the most fascinating one left, and is worth the eyes. The knockout playoffs will play a decisive role in how this campaign goes for all four countries. Prepare for more chaos.

Battle for Top 15: Cyprus Nearing Return 

The race for top 15 is nearing its conclusion, with everything firmly in Cyprus’ favour. They could not have asked for a better end to the league phase, other than Paphos advancing in the UCL. Still, they are the heavy favourites to make a long-awaited return to the top 15. Switzerland is their only competitor, and the they are at a massive disadvantage now.

The eliminations of Basel and Young Boys in the UEL paves the way for the Cypriots to beat the Swiss to 15th. The 11.906 points won this season is nothing short of staggering, and they would thoroughly deserve the fifth European place should they go on to win it. The Swiss have been largely disappointing, and will be made the rue their missed opportunities.

As for Austria, they are out of clubs following RB Salzburg’s collapse on the final matchday in the Europa League. It was an incredibly poor showing from them this year, and their punishment will be to lose a team, ending a decade-long run in the top 15. Losing Wolfsberger in the UECL playoffs will be the one that hurts them the most. That, combined with the disastrous showings in the league phase, contributed to this failure.

Scotland’s hopes are done as well. Celtic survived thanks to their win, but that will not be enough to overcome a gap of almost 4.000 points. That was just the nation’s ninth win in Europe this term. Kosovo has as many wins as they do, and they are 18 places below them. Like Austria, they have been in the top 15 for quite sometime. But, this time, they are losing their place, and little argument can be had for them here.

So, 15th spot is Cyprus’ to lose. They will be fans of Sigma Olomouc over the next two Thursdays, as should they knock out Lausanne-Sport, the battle will be over.

Battle for 22nd/29th: Bulgaria Has Hope as Romania Fails Again

The race for 22nd in the five-year UEFA coefficient ranking also took quite the turn in January, as Croatia and Hungary solidified their spots. Romania, meanwhile, is out after a significant collapse. They will certainly be made to regret how things panned out, given the advantage they had before the league phase began.

Serbia can dream of top 22 again thanks to Crvena zvezda. They passed Ukraine thanks to the 0.875 points won from the week. They still have work to do if they are to catch the Hungarians, but there is still a shot. The same applies for Ukraine, who was idle.

Azerbaijan passed Slovenia thanks to Qarabağ progressing, while Bulgaria is still in with a shot of finishing 29th thanks to Ludogorets moving on. Remember, Russia’s 4.333 points will see them finish with 22.632. This means that Slovakia is not safe, as Bulgaria can still pass them. The gap is at 1.813 points, equivalent to four wins. Whether they can hold on will be determined between now and March.

This may not be the most fascinating battle in comparison to the others, but this is far from over. The UEL and UECL will have some really interesting ties that will ultimately determine how things end here.

A Look at Everyone Else

We conclude with the remaining nations no longer in a battle. Denmark and Norway will duke it out for 13th, though there is no difference in the European spots there. The Danes have the advantage by nearly 2.000 points, but Norway has an extra team thanks to the elimination of

Sweden and Israel’s disappointing runs come to an end. For the second year running, the latter failed to produce on the European stage, and will see a drop in the rankings to start the 2026/27 campaign. The Swedes could not maintain their strong showing in qualifying, meaning they miss out on 15th.

As for Kazakhstan, their continental journey is over, but they can be quite happy with what Kairat Almaty managed to do. Had they had some help, 33rd would have been a realistic goal. In the end, they fall just short, and will have to go back at it again next summer.