The semifinals began last week in the UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League, and UEFA Conference League. With six games left at this point, more focus can be applied on each match, and how they impact the UEFA coefficient rankings.
There is only one battle left after the other one was decided from last week’s matches. All of the five-year ranking places have been confirmed for this season. Now, it is a matter of deciding the second place team in the seasonal ranking.
Here is The Football Lowdown’s latest UEFA coefficient analysis after the first legs of the semifinals.
Before starting, it is important to note that the access list for the 2027/28 season is not yet confirmed, as it is the first of a new three-year cycle. As such, the battles mentioned in this article are based off the current access list used until more information is known about a potential new access list.
European Performance Spot: Spain On Match Point
The battle for the last European Performance Spot continues has reached a potential decisive moment now, as either Spain or Germany can secure second place next week.
| National Association | Season Coefficient (Record) | Weekly Coefficient (Record) | Teams Left | 24/25 Coefficient |
| 1. England | 27.125 (66-17-25) | 0.666 (2-2-0) | 4 (9) | 29.464 |
| 2. Spain | 21.781 (46-14-30) | 0.375 (1-1-0) | 2 (8) | 23.892 |
| 3. Germany | 21.214 (41-12-27) | 0.000 (0-0-2) | 2 (7) | 18.421 |
| 4. Portugal | 20.500 (34-12-17) | 0.400 (1-0-0) | 1 (5) | 16.250 |
| 5. Italy | 19.000 (37-13-28) | N/A | 0 (7) | 21.875 |
| 6. France | 17.821 (36-12-30) | 0.285 (1-0-1) | 2 (7) | 17.928 |
It was the perfect week for the Spaniards last time out, with their sides claiming a win and a draw, while the German teams fell to defeat. That saw them increase their lead to 0.567 points with only the semifinal second legs and the finals to go. However, either nation can win it all this time around.
For Spain, the scenario is simple: should Atlético Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain reach the UCL final – provided they both do not do so via penalty kicks – then second place goes to Spain. The reason is simple: the 0.187 bonus points Atleti receives here, plus the minimum 0.125 match points, would increase their lead over the Germans to 0.879. Unless Bayern wins to force a shootout, the best they can do is draw and earn 0.142 points. Even then, Spain’s lead would be 0.757.
The maximum points Freiburg can still win for Germany in the UEL is 0.714 points, making it impossible for them to catch the Spaniards this term.
If Atleti and PSG progress via a shootout, that means Spain won 0.312 points total (bonus included) while Germany won 0.285 from Bayern’s win. Spain’s advantage would go up slightly, but would still leave Freiburg with a shot to be the hero if they progress to the UEL final and Rayo Vallecano falls in the UECL.
Germany’s scenario is simple: Bayern reaching the final would earn them 0.500 points. It means that if Freiburg earns at least a draw (0.142 points), and both Spanish teams are eliminated (Atleti and Rayo Vallecano lose on the night and on aggregate/penalties), then the Bundesliga claims the extra UCL berth.
So, everything is on the line this week for the two countries. The German sides are at home looking to overturn one-goal deficits, while the Spanish clubs are on the road. Remarkably, the teams from these two nations can all reach their respective finals. Should that happen, Spain would have the narrow advantage.
For the remaining countries, England went unbeaten as they could have a team in all three finals. With Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa facing each other in the UEL, they are already assured one finalist. It is a matter of whether Arsenal and Crystal Palace can join them. Of course, the Premier League will already have at least five UCL places next term. That will become six should Nottingham Forest win the UEL, or if Villa wins the competition and finishes outside of the Premier League top four.
France and Portugal each grabbed a win as they look to kickstart their five-year UEFA coefficient ranking for next season. Neither can claim an extra UCL spot via the European Performance Spot ranking, but Sporting Braga winning the UEL would give the Portuguese an extra UCL place.
Battle for 22nd: Hungary Survives
The final five-year UEFA coefficient race is over, as Shakhtar Donetsk’s defeat to Crystal Palace in Poland ended Ukraine’s hopes of catching Hungary for 22nd. The latter will benefit from sending their domestic champion to UCL Q2, while the former’s league winner will commence in Q1, excluding any potential rebalancing.
| National Association | 5-Year Coefficient | Season Coefficient (Record) | Weekly Coefficient (Record) | Teams Left |
| 22. Hungary | 27.187 | 7.437 (15-6-11) | N/A | 0 (4) |
| 23. Ukraine | 25.912 | 8.312 (17-6-15) | 0.000 (0-0-1) | 1 (4) |
The maximum points left for Ukraine now – should Shakhtar win the UECL – is 1.125 points. That would take them up to 27.037 points, just 0.150 behind Hungary.
It was a very close race, but fine margins cost the Ukrainians dearly. They failed to make the most of having multiple league phase spots, something the Hungarians did not have. It will be intriguing to see how this battle plays out next season with many more countries involved.
