The Serie A season has come down to the wire, and while there are a few things that have already been determined, the final round still has plenty to be decided.
Matches in this round will be played throughout Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, but the five games of interest will be on Sunday night at 20:45 CET.
Internazionale has secured their 20th title, with Napoli will join them in next campaign’s UEFA Champions League. Atalanta has also locked down the country’s sole UEFA Conference League berth, while Pisa and Hellas Verona are heading down to Serie B. That leaves us waiting to determine the other two UCL spots, which will also confirm the two teams heading to the Europa League. In addition, we will also find out who is the other team to be relegated.
So, who is involved in these situations, and what are the permutations? Football Lowdown takes a look at who needs what in the Serie A heading into the final day.
Champions League Battle: AC Milan (70 points), AS Roma (70), Como (68), Juventus (68)
We have perhaps the most fascinating race for Champions League football across Europe. All four of AC Milan, AS Roma, Como and Juventus have a shot at entering Europe’s premier club competition next season heading into Sunday night’s action. Two will enjoy the riches of being among football’s elite, while the other two will head to the UEFA Europa League next fall.
Milan and Roma have a two-point gap over the other two ahead of their games against Cagliari and Hellas Verona, respectively. They know that it is in their hands, and that victory will lock down a top four spot. Any loss of points will open the door for Como and Juventus, who take on Cremonese and Torino in their matches.
Things get a lot more interesting than that. The final one or two UCL berths could come down to a tiebreaker, which, in the Serie A, is head-to-head. In total, there are 11 different scenarios which could result in teams being tied for third and fourth, or just fourth.
The most intriguing one of the lot is a four-way tie. For this to happen, Milan and Roma would both have to draw their games, while Como and Juve must win. In this case, a mini-table would be formed, using the 12 matches from the season that only involve the four sides in question. This is how the table would look:
| Team | W | D | L | GD | PTS | Competition |
| 3. Milan | 2 | 4 | 0 | +3 | 10 | UCL |
| 4. Como | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 | UCL |
| 5. Juventus | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 6 | UEL |
| 6. Roma | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 | UEL |
There are also three-way ties that could end up happening, with a mini-table again being formed. This could involve any three of the four teams. This happens if Milan and Roma draw, while Como or Juve win (the other draws or loses). Here is how the final three-way tables look in this case:
Como draws or loses:
| Team | W | D | L | GD | PTS | Competition |
| 3. Juventus | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 | UCL |
| 4. Milan | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 | UCL |
| 5. Roma | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 | UEL |
Juventus draws or loses:
| Team | W | D | L | GD | PTS | Competition |
| 3. Milan | 2 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 8 | UCL |
| 4. Roma | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | UCL |
| 5. Como | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 | UEL |
The other three-way ties occur if both Juve and Como win, while one of Milan and Roma draw. The number of UCL places available depends on whether Milan or Roma, whoever does not draw, wins or loses.
If Roma wins:
| Team | W | D | L | GD | PTS | Competition |
| 4. Como | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 | UCL |
| 5. Milan | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 6 | UEL |
| 6. Juventus | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 | UEL |
If Roma loses:
| Team | W | D | L | GD | PTS | Competition |
| 3. Como | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 | UCL |
| 4. Milan | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 6 | UCL |
| 5. Juventus | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 | UEL |
If Milan wins:
| Team | W | D | L | GD | PTS | Competition |
| 4. Como | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 | UCL |
| 5. Roma | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | UEL |
| 6. Juventus | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 | UEL |
If Milan loses:
| Team | W | D | L | GD | PTS | Competition |
| 3. Como | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 | UCL |
| 4. Roma | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | UCL |
| 5. Juventus | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 | UEL |
Finally, two-way ties can occur for fourth spot, in any combination possible. Below are the teams who would benefit, and how many points they would finish on for this scenario to play out:
– Milan over Como (71 points)
– Juventus over Roma (71 points)
– Como over Juventus (71 points)
– Milan over Roma (70 points)
– Milan and Juventus (71 points) as well as Como and Roma (71 points) would be determined by goal difference, with Juve and Como having a considerable advantage in their respective tiebreakers.
With all that in mind, Sunday is set to be incredibly fun in the race for UCL football in the Serie A.
Relegation: Lecce (35), Cremonese (34)
The other thing to be decided on the final day is the final relegated team. Lecce and Cremonese are just a point apart, with the former holding the narrowest of leads heading into the last round. As previously mentioned, Cremonese takes on Como, while Lecce is at home to Genoa.
Thankfully, the scenarios here are a lot simpler: Lecce knows they are safe with a win and/or a Cremonese loss. The Giallorossi can also maintain their Serie A status if both sides draw. For the Grigiorossi, in order for them to be officially avoid the drop on Sunday, they need a win along with a Lecce draw or loss.
However, what happens if the pair finish level on points? This plays out should Lecce lose and Cremonese draw, where they would have 35 points each. In the Serie A, a playoff occurs whenever two teams finish level for the title, or for 17th spot. Instead of using head-to-head, which is in Cremonese’s favour, the teams meet at a neutral location in a one-off match to determine who ends up keeping their place in the top flight.
This happened three years ago, when Spezia and Verona were tied after 38 matches. The latter ended up winning 3-1 to remain in the league.
So, now the question is, could we see another playoff occur? This is something to keep an eye out for on Sunday night.
