This season’s Bundesliga is going down to the wire in many aspects.
While the champion and three of the four Champions League spots are already known, there is still one more UCL berth, the last European place, and relegation to decide heading into the final day of football. All nine Bundesliga fixtures will occur on Saturday at 15:30 CET.
So, who needs what on Saturday? Football Lowdown gives the permutations for this final day Bundesliga play.
Champions League Battle: Stuttgart (61 points), Hoffenheim (61), Bayer Leverkusen (58)
One of Stuttgart, Hoffenheim, or Bayer Leverkuen will join Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, and RB Leipzig in the UCL next fall. The other two sides will enter the Europa League in September.
Stuttgart goes into the final weekend with the advantage, having a goal difference of +22 to Hoffenheim’s +17. In essence, it means should Die Roten defeat Eintracht Frankfurt away, fourth is almost certainly theirs. It will be a tough task though, seeing their opponent also has something to play for. Should Stuttgart prevail, the likelihood of Hoffenheim making up the five-goal difference will be incredibly low.
Speaking of Die Kraichgauer, they are at Borussia Mönchengladbach for their final game. Their best hope is claiming more points than Stuttgart does from their match. If this scenario pans out, Hoffenheim will participate in the UCL proper for the second time in their history. If they lose, or if both sides draw, then it will be a fourth Europa League appearance, and a second in three years.
Leverkusen is in the most disadvantageous situation of the trio. Die Werkself, who have played in the UCL in three of the last four years, have Hamburg for their last match of the season. The good news for them is, similar to Hoffenheim, their opponent does not have much on the line. They will simply be trying to finish as high as possible. With that in mind, Leverkusen needs to win their game and hope that both Stuttgart and Hoffenheim lose.
This would result in all three teams being equal on points, but Kasper Hjulmand’s side would have the best goal difference. This is regardless of the margin of victory across the three matches.
Conference League Berth: Freiburg (44), Eintracht Frankfurt (43), Augsburg (43)
With both DFB Pokal finalists already assured a place in the top six, Germany’s sole spot in the UEFA Conference League will go to the seventh place team. That leaves one of Freiburg, Eintracht Frankfurt, and Augsburg in the running for the spot.
Currently, it is Freiburg who has the narrow advantage heading into Saturday’s deciders. Julian Schuster’s men are at home to Leipzig to close out their Bundesliga season. Things could not be any simpler for the side participating in the Europa League final: win, and seventh is theirs. Losses from the other two competitors also does the trick, and if Freiburg can claim a point, then they will remain in seventh if Frankfurt and Augsburg fail to win.
There is one thing to note regarding the Breisgau-Brasilianer – regarding where they finish. As they are in the UEL final next Wednesday, they can still qualify for the Champions League if they prevail in İstanbul. Should Freiburg finish seventh in the Bundesliga and win the Europa League, then Germany’s Conference League berth will be vacated. It will not be passed down to the eighth place team, with rebalancing occurring instead. If Freiburg wins the UEL and finishes eighth or ninth, then there will be eight German teams in Europe next term.
Frankfurt is on a run of four games without a win, losing three of them. Die Adler could not have chosen a worse time to hit such poor form. They host Stuttgart at home, which will be very challenging given what is on the line for their opponent. A win, coupled by a draw or loss from Freiburg will see the 2021/22 Europa League winners jump into seventh and make a return to the UECL. Should they draw, then they require a Freiburg loss along with an Augsburg draw or loss.
In any scenario where Frankfurt is level on points with either or both of their competitors, they will have the advantage due to having a superior goal difference.
While both of the sides above them have disappointing form of late, Augsburg comes into this weekend six unbeaten (3-3-0), having won their last two. For Fuggerstädter, they make the trip to the capital to face Union Berlin, who is already safe. Their best bet of finishing seventh is by winning, and hoping that neither one of Freiburg nor Frankfurt do the same. A draw could be enough, should Freiburg lose by four or more goals and Frankfurt loses altogether.
Should they manage to do so, Augsburg will play in just their second continental campaign ever, having participated in the Europa League 11 years ago.
Relegation: Wolfsburg (26), Heidenheim (26), St. Pauli (26)
While none of Wolfsburg, Heidenheim, nor St. Pauli can secure their Bundesliga status for next season on Saturday, the team who finishes 16th will give themselves one more shot to do so via a playoff against the 2. Bundesliga’s third place finisher.
Perhaps the most fascinating battle of the three, Wolfsburg and St. Pauli will face off in a direct duel at Millerntor-Stadion. If Wolfsburg wins, they will play in the playoff, so long as Heidenheim does not make up the goal difference. For reference, Die Wölfe have a -26 goal difference, while the other two are at -29. Moreover, a draw in both matches would leave Wolfsburg third from bottom and give them the playoff berth.
For St. Pauli, their situation is slightly more complicated. They have to win to stand a shot at 16th. However, their margin of victory has to be the same (or better) than Heidenheim. A draw or loss will see Kiezkicker make an immediate return to the second tier, regardless of what happens in the other game.
The situation is even more dire for Heidenheim, who suffered the full effect of second season syndrome. Although they have won two of their last three games, FCH heads into Saturday’s play needing to beat Mainz at home. On top of that, they are hoping that the direct clash between Wolfsburg and St. Pauli finishes all square, which would assure them 16th spot. If St. Pauli wins, then Heidenheim has to have a larger margin of victory. Should Wolfsburg win that match, then FCH would in essence need to overcome a goal difference of four. Otherwise, they will still be relegated.
