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Opinion: Notts County Are Finding Out Just How Big The Step Up To League One Is

Notts County’s return to League One was always going to present challenges, but Saturday’s 2-1 defeat to Oxford United at Meadow Lane suggested those challenges might be considerably greater than some supporters anticipated.

Three successive league defeats have left the Magpies looking nervously towards the bottom four, and while there is plenty of football remaining, there are increasingly legitimate questions about whether Martin Paterson’s squad is equipped to compete consistently at this level.

The first-half performance was particularly concerning. Oxford were sharper, quicker and more aggressive, pressing County into mistakes and preventing them from establishing any meaningful attacking rhythm. James Belshaw’s error for the opening goal was dreadful, but it would be unfair to suggest the goalkeeper was solely responsible for the defeat.

County struggled to play through Oxford’s press, and when they attempted to go long, possession invariably returned to the visitors. It was a worrying demonstration of how a system that has brought two promotions can suddenly look vulnerable against technically stronger opponents.

Paterson deserves credit for his honesty afterwards. He acknowledged mistakes in his selection and admitted that the coaching staff face considerable work getting some of their younger players ready for League One football.

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However, acknowledging problems and solving them are very different things.

The decision to leave Rory Finneran and Nick Tsaroulla on the bench was understandable given their international commitments, but both demonstrated their importance after coming on. Finneran’s excellent late strike gave the scoreline a degree of respectability, although it would be generous to suggest County ever looked particularly likely to rescue the game.

The bigger concern is the lack of attacking threat. County lost players responsible for approximately 70% of last season’s goals during the summer, and replacing that productivity was never going to be straightforward.

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Daniel Kanu has shown glimpses of his ability since arriving from Charlton Athletic, but he is receiving precious little service. His failure to connect with a promising second-half opportunity summed up an afternoon when even the relatively few chances County created seemed destined to go begging.

Luka Smyth is another player adapting to a considerably different level of football. There is potential within this group, but expecting young players to make that adjustment immediately is asking an enormous amount.

Equally troubling is the defensive record. Without a league clean sheet this season, County are effectively placing themselves in a position where they must score twice to win matches. For a side struggling to create opportunities, that is an uncomfortable equation.

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There will inevitably be calls to abandon the wing-back system, introduce two strikers or change the approach completely. However, the club’s recruitment model and playing philosophy have delivered considerable success under the Reedtz brothers, and dismissing everything because of three defeats would be premature.

Nevertheless, League One is exposing weaknesses that opponents in League Two were less capable of exploiting. Oxford’s pace out wide frequently prevented County’s wing-backs from advancing, restricting an important source of attacking creativity.

The absence of genuine speed within the squad is another issue. Without players capable of running beyond defenders, County are making life considerably easier for opposition back lines.

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Paterson now faces perhaps his most important challenge since taking charge. He must find a way to preserve the principles that have served the club well while recognising that League One demands greater adaptability, physicality and ruthlessness.

The coming fixture against Wycombe Wanderers already feels important, particularly with confidence potentially becoming another problem if defeats continue. There is no reason to panic after nine league matches, but equally, supporters are entitled to question performances that have produced just one victory.

County do not need to abandon their identity, but they must acknowledge that the football which secured promotion is not automatically sufficient to secure survival.

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At present, they are neither defensively reliable enough nor sufficiently threatening in attack. Unless one of those things changes quickly, what began as an exciting return to League One could become a season spent fighting simply to remain there.

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