Bolton Wanderers fans might not be completely convinced their side is worthy of promotion, but in the expected point table, they’re on course to win the title.

Of course, nobody ever won a title by expected points, apart from Coventry in 2019/20. That was a one-off, and even a global pandemic wouldn’t put Bolton top at present. But, as Trotters’ fans brace for yet another stab at the play-offs, there is a real shout that they’re actually the best team in the league right now, if only they could finish.

The expected points table takes each game individually and works out the result based on xG. For instance, Bolton drew 1-1 with Lincoln City on Saturday, so in terms of the league, they took a single point. By a respected xG model (Wyscout), the score should have been 3-0 to Lincoln, with their xG of 3.44 better than the 0.91 of their visitors. In the expected points table, that would be a win for Lincoln and defeat for Bolton.

When every game is treated in that manner, the table turns out as below.

EXPECTED POINTS LEAGUE ONE TABLE

The biggest story when you layer promotion structure over the expected points model is right at the top. Cardiff City and Lincoln City occupy the two automatic promotion places, yet both are significantly ahead of where the xG table suggested they should be. Cardiff are first with 69 points from 32 games, despite an expected total closer to the low-50s, while Lincoln sit second on 65 from a similar base. In pure xG terms, neither should be comfortably automatic, but both have turned fine margins into decisive wins. In promotion terms, that makes them the clearest examples of teams whose league position flatters their underlying numbers, even if that does not diminish what they have achieved so far.

The play-off picture is where the distortions become more interesting. Bolton and Bradford sit third and fourth, broadly in line with expectation, but Huddersfield are the most notable case of a false position inside the top six. They are sixth with 49 points, which would put them into the play-offs, yet their expected points total was third best in the division. By contrast, Wycombe are 10th, outside the play-off places altogether, despite having the second-highest expected points figure. If results aligned more closely with chance quality, Wycombe and Huddersfield would be pushing for automatic promotion rather than clinging to sixth and tenth.

At the bottom end, the relegation battle is even more skewed by the gap between performance and return. Port Vale are 24th and adrift on 22 points, firmly in the relegation places, yet their expected points total would have them mid-table. That is not a small swing; it is the largest false position in the division, and it suggests a season defined by losing close games and failing to convert chances rather than being consistently outplayed. Burton, Northampton and Rotherham broadly align with their underlying numbers, but Vale stand out as the side most harshly treated by variance.

Taken together, the false positions are clear. Cardiff and Lincoln look like overperforming automatic promotion sides, Wycombe are the most obvious play-off quality team marooned outside the top six, and Port Vale are the starkest relegation side whose underlying data does not match their league fate. With a third of the season still to play, the question is whether results drift back towards expectation, or whether these gaps harden into final outcomes that the numbers will still be arguing about long after the table is settled.

And, of course, we shouldn’t forget poor old Bolton, third in the real table, but top in the one that doesn’t matter.